I don’t usually get too political with what I write on here, though it’s usually not hard to get a sense of my leanings. That said, a friend of mine sent out an email with a few links to things regarding the election on Tuesday. I figured I’d repost part of it here, so that people can get pointed to some interesting pieces.
Friends,I want to share a few articles since they stirred my thoughts on the elections this year, but perhaps more informatively, I will share what little advice I can offer regarding election night. I am not involved with the elections this year–I don’t know what my election-night plans are the month before for the first time since before 1996–, so I can’t say what has changed. But the answer is probably: not much.Here are the WSJ pieces (they’ve become my most recent favorite source for election-related commentary):
- This piece contains some new & interesting ideas, particularly given the author’s past experience: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122533157015082889.html
- This piece contains the reality I have been trying to propound to people about polling during this election cycle (along with a glimmer of hope): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122533149619882883.html To be blunter about it: if someone tells you they have any idea how this will turn out, that person is lying. The polls this cycle are likely to be radically inaccurate because we’re likely to hit new historical markers for which there is no past data. Increased black turnout, increased young voter turnout (often predicted, rarely realized), and perhaps anti-Obama racial effects may all show up in this election to some extent. No one knows how these will play out. Lots of guesswork is going on right now, and it’s not any more than that, which is also why even daily margins on these polls is so extreme. That said, it’s telling that all of the polls are leaning towards an Obama win: McCain is very likely behind–but by how much, no one knows.
- This piece sets up the stakes of this election for our economic philosophy better than anything else I’ve read (Karthik: this goes to the comment you made the other day about a “better product.”): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122533132337982833.html
I especially like the last piece because the author connects the themes from Obama’s plans and talks about the rhetoric. Obama’s use of “investment” in that way upset me as well–investment denotes that we can hope to see a non-zero financial return. It’s yet another example of how he won the rhetorical battle throughout this election.
These pieces pretty much mirror what I’ve been thinking and telling people. The polls are interesting too look at, but in reality, the race is far from being decided. That’s not to say that an Obama blowout isn’t possible, but just saying that it’s not actually a sure thing, as some polls make it seem. I hope that you guys find them interesting as well.